Russia 'On the Edge of Civil War'—Ukraine Spymaster

The head of Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR) has said that Russia is on the brink of civil war that could tear the country apart.

Major-General Kyrylo Budanov came to that conclusion after his spy agency examined a secret internal study by Russia's Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD). This focused on levels of public support for the mutiny by the Wagner Group of mercenaries, which was a direct challenge to Russian leader Vladimir Putin's authority. Last month, Yevgeny Prigozhin's men seized military facilities in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and marched on Moscow.

Budanov told British newspaper The Times that the MVD had tracked attitudes to the mutiny using new-generation spyware that monitors messaging apps, as well as social and regional media trends.

Budanov said the MVD had assessed that, on the days of the rebellion, Wagner founder Prigozhin had popular support in 17 of Russia's 46 regions; Putin in 21; while, in the other regions, backing for both men was roughly equal.

"That's what we see now—that Russian society is torn into two pieces," Budanov told the British newspaper.

In his view, the data showed "exactly what our service has been talking about—that the Russian Federation is on the edge of (the) civil war. There needs to be a small internal 'affair', and the internal conflict will be intensified."

Ukrainian intelligence found that the MVD study had shown Putin could rely on the loyalty of Moscow but not in his home city of St. Petersburg. The Russian president had the least support in the southern republic of Dagestan, where Prigozhin enjoyed 97 percent support.

The prospect of civil war in Russia, or the country disintegrating in a post-Putin world, concerns world leaders but is advocated as necessary by some opposition figures seeking to overthrow the Kremlin.

Former chess player and founder of the Free Russia Forum Garry Kasparov told Newsweek in May that Putin's defeat in Ukraine would mean a collapse of his regime. He added that Russia would end up smaller, with territories such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Chechnya likely to leave the federation.

But he added that, while "Eastern Europe would be cheering if Russia collapses and becomes a multi-state, chaotic, wild east.... further west the situation changes."

"In America, I think this is the biggest concern," Kasparov said, because this could mean "the rise of China and the expense of Russia."

Budanov would not confirm or deny Ukrainian responsibility for the sabotage of Russian targets, such as the Nord Stream pipeline, drones hitting the Kremlin and the destruction of Crimea's Kerch Bridge, but did say "we use direct action."

In comments suggesting that Budanov directed unspecified assassination, he told The Times, "while these inhumans are existing, we will be active."

"We know how to do them, and we were proud of using them, and we are not afraid of using them anywhere in this world against whoever," Budanov added.

Leaked U.S. intelligence documents showed that, in January this year, Prigozhin communicated with Ukrainian intelligence in January, offering Kyiv information on Russian positions in return for Ukrainian troops withdrawing from Bakhmut.

One document referred meetings between GUR operatives and Prigozhin in an unspecified African nation. Without giving details, Budanov said "of course" the GUR met with Wagner "in many African countries," although he added that the word 'met' had "many meanings."

Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment via email.