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Top 10 States Expecting Drops In Public School Enrollment

This article is more than 5 years old.

If you’re a statistical person – and count me in as a data geek –  you should look carefully at the newest projections on student enrollment trends in states across the country.

The numbers are important because a rise or fall in student population could impact almost everything about schools.

That includes the number of teachers and administrators needed; class sizes; school construction or school closures; the number of high school graduates who enroll in colleges and universities, and the taxpayers who pay for public education.

The projections released in April from the federal government’s National Center for Education Statistics show that between 2014 and 2026, enrollment nationwide is expected to go up about 3%, up to 51.7-million kids in public grade schools and high schools.

But that’s not the whole story, because that 3% “plays out differently among the states,” the report states.

Based on a regional analysis, the Northeast and Midwest would expect declines in students, while the South and West regions would expect increases.

The report also shows how individual states and Washington, D.C. fare in the projections.

Overall, 19 states showed drops in enrollment in the projections.

The top 10 states with the largest percentage declines by 2026 were: Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Ohio, New Jersey and Illinois.

Thirty states and Washington, D.C. showed enrollment increases in the report.

The biggest percentage boosts in enrollment were: Washington, D.C., North Dakota, Utah, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, Florida, Colorado, Washington state and Montana.

Connecticut stands out as the state with the largest percentage drop in enrollment, according to the projections -- a decline of 14.3% by 2026. That would mean about 465,000 students enrolled, down from 543,000 in 2014.

But the declines aren’t new in that state.

Peter A. Yazbak, the director of communications at the Connecticut State Department of Education, noted, for example, that enrollment has dropped every school year from 2012-13 to 2017-18.

Yazbak also pointed to the Connecticut State Data Center, which has projected overall population growth in Connecticut up to the year 2040. That data does not include school enrollment, but it does mention trends in fertility rates -- the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age.

Connecticut’s fertility rate is one of the lowest in the country, according to the data center.

That could be one of many reasons for student enrollment declines at public schools. For example, some families with school-age children will move from a state for family, employment or other reasons, causing a decline in enrollment in their public schools.

On the flip side, families may move to a state with burgeoning school enrollment.

Texas, for example, is expected to see a 13.7% increase in public school enrollment between 2014 and 2026, jumping from about 5.2-million to 5.9-million students.

DeEtta Culbertson, a spokeswoman for the Texas Education Agency, said enrollment rises by about 80,000 students annually in Texas public schools.

“This can be attributed to the robust and growing state economy,” she said. “Overall, the state as a whole is seeing an increase in population growth due to new business openings, relocation and existing businesses and industries expanding throughout.”